HVAC industry market size, growth and forecast

The global HVAC market will be worth $407.77 billion by 2030, up from $299.28 billion in 2025. That is growth of 6.4% a year, and it adds more than $108 billion to the industry in five years.

That money is not spread evenly. Ten countries account for most of what the world spends on heating, ventilation and air conditioning. The biggest of them is more than 24 times the size of the tenth.

The 10 largest HVAC markets in the world

1. United States: $65.20 billion, growing to $82.72 billion by 2030

The United States is the biggest HVAC market in the world. It is worth $65.20 billion in 2025, up from $62.02 billion in 2024, and will reach $82.72 billion by 2030. That is growth of 4.88% a year.

The US alone accounts for more than a quarter of global HVAC spending. Steady construction, an aging base of equipment coming due for replacement, and large government incentives for electric systems all keep the money flowing. More than 70% of American homes have air conditioning.

2. China: $55.18 billion, growing to $80.44 billion by 2030

China's HVAC market is worth $55.18 billion in 2025, up from $50.86 billion in 2024. It will reach $80.44 billion by 2030, growing 7.83% a year. That is the fastest growth of any large market in the world.

People are moving from the countryside into cities in huge numbers, and that is driving spending on housing, commercial buildings and infrastructure. Every new building needs a system installed. At this rate, China closes most of the gap with the United States by the end of the decade.

3. Japan: $18.69 billion, growing to $28.51 billion by 2031

Japan's HVAC market is worth $18.69 billion in 2025, rising to $20.05 billion in 2026 and $28.51 billion by 2031. That is growth of 7.28% a year.

Japan has committed to carbon neutrality by 2050, and the country is switching to high efficiency electric heat pumps to get there. Every new public building must produce as much energy as it uses by 2030. Floor space built to that standard grew 43% in a single year in 2024.

4. Canada: $12.20 billion, growing to $15.71 billion by 2030

Canada's HVAC market is worth $12.20 billion in 2025, up from $11.57 billion in 2024, and will reach $15.71 billion by 2030. That is growth of 5.20% a year.

Canada is a heating market first. Keeping homes warm accounts for close to two thirds of all household energy use in the country. Old furnaces are being swapped for more efficient models, and cold climate heat pumps are selling fast, so revenue keeps rising even as the price of individual units falls.

5. India: $12.14 billion, growing to $17.41 billion by 2030

India's HVAC market is worth $12.14 billion in 2025, up from $11.23 billion in 2024, and will reach $17.41 billion by 2030. That is growth of 7.5% a year.

By 2030, more than 600 million people will live in India's cities. All of them need housing, and the malls, offices, hospitals, hotels and airports around them need climate control. The government's Smart Cities programme is speeding that up.

6. France: $7.10 billion, growing to $9.71 billion by 2030

France's HVAC market is worth $7.10 billion in 2025, up from $6.64 billion in 2024, and will reach $9.71 billion by 2030. That is growth of 6.46% a year.

France has some of the strictest building energy rules in Europe. Heating and cooling make up 45% of all the energy the country uses. Households alone burn through about 30% of it, which is more than French industry uses.

7. Italy: $7.07 billion, growing to $9.61 billion by 2031

Italy's HVAC market is worth $7.07 billion in 2026 and will reach $9.61 billion by 2031, growing 6.34% a year.

Italy runs on replacement work. Retrofits and replacements made up 61.64% of all revenue in 2025. The country has 12 million homes built before 1990, and they face a 2033 deadline to hit a minimum energy rating. Air conditioning is the biggest product category at 45.43% of revenue, and the government wants 6.5 million heat pumps installed by 2030.

Two numbers stand out for anyone running a contracting business. Retrofit jobs make a 32% gross margin against 21% on new construction. And Italy has only 18,000 certified installers, roughly 7,000 short of what the heat pump rollout needs.

8. South Korea: $6.59 billion, growing to $9.86 billion by 2031

South Korea's HVAC market is worth $6.59 billion in 2025, rising to $7.05 billion in 2026 and $9.86 billion by 2031. That is growth of 6.95% a year.

What makes South Korea interesting is that it grew while construction shrank. Total construction spending fell 3% in 2024 and another 4.2% in 2025. HVAC still grew, because building owners poured money into upgrading anything built before 2010, and the boom in AI data centres created demand for serious cooling.

9. Spain: $3.46 billion, growing to $4.53 billion by 2030

Spain's HVAC market is worth $3.46 billion in 2025, up from $3.27 billion in 2024, and will reach $4.53 billion by 2030. That is growth of 5.60% a year.

Spain is the clearest example of a market pushed by the cost of electricity rather than the weather. Power is among the most expensive in Europe, so households and building owners switch to efficient systems to cut the running cost, not to be greener. Heat accounts for 41% of everything the country consumes.

The state is paying people to do it. A household installing an air source heat pump can claim up to 3,000 euros, roughly 40% of the installation cost. Spain wants gas boilers out of public buildings and is targeting 500,000 homes upgraded a year. Under EU rules every new building must be zero emission by 2030, and every existing one by 2050.

10. United Kingdom: $2.67 billion, growing to $3.36 billion by 2031

The UK HVAC market is worth $2.67 billion in 2025, rising to $2.77 billion in 2026 and $3.36 billion by 2031. That is growth of 3.89% a year, the slowest of the ten biggest markets.

The UK is moving off gas heating quickly. New rules on heat pumps start in 2026, and the country has a legally binding target to hit net zero by 2050. Almost all the work is retrofit, because most of the homes that will still be standing in 2050 have already been built.

Service work makes up 33.45% of UK revenue and will reach $1.34 billion by 2031, growing faster than equipment sales.

Which HVAC markets are growing fastest?

Being big and growing fast are two different things. China and India grow fastest but rank second and fifth by size. The United States is the largest market in the world and only the ninth fastest growing. The UK comes last on both.